Tuesday, August 17, 2010

National League East: Predicting the Division Winner

Current Standings: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/

**NOTE** This was written on August 17th

EAST:
Atlanta                70-49
Philadelphia         67-51
New York            59-60
Florida                58-60
Washington         51-68

Like almost every other division in baseball, the NL East is the site of a hold-onto-the-edge-of-your-seat pennant race this season.

Atlanta (70-49) remains atop the division with a 2.5 game lead on Philadelphia (67-51), who finds itself fighting to remain within a shot at the NL East pennant. The Phillies obviously must gain ground on Atlanta at some point along the road if they are to capture the division, but the Braves don't seem to be giving them much room for error, as they boast an 11-5 record in August.

The Mets (59-60) look as lost as the Marlins (58-60) and the Nasty Nats (51-68) these days, as they remain 11, 11.5, and 19 games back, respectively.

But back to the teams with a shot to go anywhere, it's never an easy task to climb out of a 2.5 game hole in the middle of August, but it is far from impossible.

My baseball philosophy begins and ends with pitching, as I firmly believe that the men on the mound are what ultimately wins championships, especially late into the season and into October. This is why I pick Philadelphia to win the NL East.

Atlanta has a nice squad, but Phillies pitcher Roy Halladay is just one of those guys that you don't bet against. The 33-year-old right hander is 15-8 this season with a 2.24 ERA, which includes a perfect game against the Florida Marlins on May 29th at Sun Life Stadium. And Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt don't want Halladay to be the only pitcher to contribute this season, as they boast ERAs of 3.33 and 3.36, respectively. And with Chase Utley returning from the disabled list a week ahead of schedule, the Phillies look primed to take this season anywhere they want it to go.

But don't forget about the hidden doorway to the playoffs--the Wild Card. As of now, Philadelphia leads San Francisco (67-53) by one game in the WC standings with St. Louis (65-53) nawing on their back at just at a 2 game deficit. And with the Reds (68-51) leading the Cards by just 2.5 games in the Central, the NL Wild Card realistically has five different teams fighting for the spot.

Although I predict Philadelphia to snab the division away from Atlanta, look for the Braves to steal the Wild Card spot from the other contenders. Beyond Atlanta having a good looking roster, pitcher Tim Hudson holds a 14-5 record with an ERA of 2.13. Although they lost Chipper Jones for the season, they've recently acquired first baseman Derrek Lee from the Cubs, which should help fill the void. It only happens to one of the divisions in each league every year, but look for the East to boast two playoff teams this year in Philly and Atlanta.

But like almost every other division...grab your popcorn, sit back, and enjoy this very close ride.

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