American League East: Predicting the Division Winner

Current Standings: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/

**NOTE** This was written on August 6th

EAST:
New York             67-40
Tampa Bay           67-41
Boston                  62-47
Toronto                56-52
Baltimore              35-73


The American League East has had the fans' attention since the season started. In fact, it just may be the best race in baseball. To predict which team will climb out ahead, you can usually just take into account the fact that the Yankees (67-40) have won their division 8 of the last 10 years. However, Tampa Bay (67-41) continues to fight to the death and lies only a 1/2 game back for the division lead. Boston (62-47) was thought to also contend neck and neck with the top two teams, but seeing as we're in August and they're 6 games back, the future's not exactly the brightest star in the sky for Red Sox fans.

Let me get the other guys outta the way though. Toronto (56-52) would be a contender if in the West and possibly the Central, but seeing as relocating isn't an option, they're as done for as the Orioles (35-73), who obviously lie dead last in the division, the league, and the majors altogether.

So Yankees or Rays, Rays or Yankees. Hmm....

Taking everything into account, the answer to me has to be New York.

I'm not really factoring in the half game lead they have, because the Rays and Yankees might just alternate first and second place in the East until the last day of the season. But considering New York added Lance Berkman, Austin Kearns and Kerry Wood before the trade deadline, we can probably expect them to go nowhere but up from here on out.

Furthermore, the Rays, much unlike New York, failed to acquire a big bat before the trade deadline. That's not to say they'll get worse, but rather that the Yankees might just jet out ahead due to their added talent.

Also, as we can probably all agree on, home field advantage is a big part of every sport. And just as a cherry on top, the Yankees play host for the last 4 out of 7 meetings these clubs have left with each other. It's not much, but it's something.

But whether I'm right or not, both these teams will have a spot in the playoffs. Ever since the season pretty much got started, whichever team wasn't in first in the AL East was still in first in the AL Wild Card (Second place in the AL Wild Card belongs to Boston at the moment). So all I'm saying is that New York will pick up its second straight AL East pennant and Tampa Bay will climb into the postseason via Wild Card.

No matter how it happens, the real games for these teams begin in October.