Wednesday, August 18, 2010

National League Central: Predicting the Division Winner

Current Standings: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/

**NOTE** This was written on August 18th

CENTRAL:
Cincinnati          68-51
St. Louis           65-53
Milwaukee        57-64
Houston            52-66
Chi Cubs          50-71
Pittsburgh          40-79


The National League Central holds six teams--unfortunately for baseball ratings, only two are worth watching.

The Brewers (57-64), Astros (52-66), Cubs (50-71) and Pirates (40-79) have shown no signs of even wanting to make the postseason, as Milwaukee, the 3rd place team in the Central, lies 12 games behind the first place Reds (68-51).

But the one team not referenced yet is also the only one with a chance of uprooting the Reds' possession of first place from right under them. And I believe they will...

The St. Louis Cardinals (65-53) lie 2.5 games behind the aformentioned Reds, who've been watching their back closely after recently snabbing the division lead courtesy of a Reds' four game win streak and a Cards four game streak in the opposite direction.

Credit Cincinnati, who has played surpisingly good baseball this year in an effort to try an grab its first Central title in 15 years. After coming off a barely above .500 July, Cincy holds a record of 10-4 in August, which includes winning 8 of their last 11.

But I don't see St. Louis giving up. In sweeping Cincinnati last week, the Birds showed that they can play with anyone, especially demonstrated from a dugout-clearing brawl between the two teams on August 10th. Factor in Reds 2B Brandon Phillips's comments about hating the Cardinals to death, and we may have another Red Sox-Yankees type rivalry going on here.

Despite the 2.5 game deficit, I still think the Cards have a great shot to win the Central. As I've said before, baseball begins and ends with pitching. Between Adam Wainwright (17-6 record, league-leading 1.99 ERA), Chris Carpenter (13-4, 2.95) and Jaime Garcia (10-6, 2.58), it would be a shame to see St. Louis miss the playoffs based on shear pitching alone. But add in Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday swinging the bats and you have yourself a great team for postseason contention.

We can only speculate how things will shape up here, but I just don't see Cincy outlasting St. Louis. Pujols and the Cards simply boasts too much talent. And, as I stated in my NL East article, I believe Atlanta will sneak in through the NL Wild Card, leaving the Reds sitting at home for the fifteenth straight year.

But the important thing moving forward is that these teams will meet again this season for a very important three game set in Busch Stadium. Look for this series to play a big part in the immediate futures of both these teams.

Don't get comfortable Cincinnati, here come the Redbirds...

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